How does churn affect the MRR forecast?

Churn applies as a percentage of current MRR each month, so its cost grows as your base grows. The tool subtracts churned MRR and adds new and expansion revenue every month, which produces a realistic curve instead of a straight line.

What is a realistic monthly churn rate for SaaS?

Typical small-business SaaS churn runs 3 to 7 percent per month, while enterprise products often sit near 1 percent. Higher-churn products need faster signup growth to keep net MRR moving.

Does the forecast include taxes or payment fees?

No. The model works on subscription revenue before taxes and processing fees. Apply your fee and tax rates separately when converting forecast MRR into banked cash.

Is my revenue data stored or shared?

No. All math runs in your browser and inputs stay on your device. Nothing is uploaded to a server.

MRR / ARR Forecaster

Project recurring revenue 12 or 24 months out using your signup velocity, ARPU, churn, and expansion. See the curve and the annualized growth rate.

Inputs

Starting MRR

New signups per month

users

ARPU per signup

Monthly churn3%

Expansion revenue (per month)1%

ARR (month 12)

$382,087

MRR · $31,841

Annualized growth

59%

4.0% per month

Gross new

$1,500

per month

Churned

$600

month 1

Avg net new

$987

over horizon

MRR over 12 months

peak $31,841

$21,100

$22,178

$23,234

$24,270

$25,284

$26,279

$27,253

$28,208

$29,144

$30,061

$30,960

$31,841

How it's calculated

Each month: new MRR = signups × ARPU − (current MRR × churn) + (current MRR × expansion). Numbers assume signups and ARPU stay flat. For variable signups, run multiple scenarios.

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What problem does this solve?

Founders guess growth with a single percentage, which hides how churn and expansion shape the curve. A subscription business can add signups every month and still stall. This tool forecasts MRR month by month from new signups, ARPU, churn, and expansion revenue.

Built for: SaaS founders and growth leads setting revenue targets and planning hiring. Anyone writing a board update that needs a defensible 12- or 24-month projection.

Worked example

Enter starting MRR of 10,000, 20 new signups per month, and an ARPU of 100.
Set monthly churn to 3 percent and expansion revenue to 2 percent of MRR.
The tool projects each month: gross new of 2,000, churned near 300, expansion near 200, and net new near 1,900.
After 12 months it shows an MRR near 33,000, which is roughly 396,000 in ARR terms.
Raise churn to 6 percent and rerun to see how much of the curve churn eats.

Common questions

How does churn affect the MRR forecast?: Churn applies as a percentage of current MRR each month, so its cost grows as your base grows. The tool subtracts churned MRR and adds new and expansion revenue every month, which produces a realistic curve instead of a straight line.
What is a realistic monthly churn rate for SaaS?: Typical small-business SaaS churn runs 3 to 7 percent per month, while enterprise products often sit near 1 percent. Higher-churn products need faster signup growth to keep net MRR moving.
Does the forecast include taxes or payment fees?: No. The model works on subscription revenue before taxes and processing fees. Apply your fee and tax rates separately when converting forecast MRR into banked cash.
Is my revenue data stored or shared?: No. All math runs in your browser and inputs stay on your device. Nothing is uploaded to a server.

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